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Futures Market Monitor July 14, 2009

Thomas Ho at 7/15/2009 11:35:45 PM | 350 Views | 1 Comments Go to Message Board

Abstract: US Treasury long term rates rose. The net basis of the 10 year Sept contract widened, attributed to the rise in the delivery option value without significant change in cheap/rich

Yield Curve Movements Basis point cumulative shifts of the implied spot yield curve during the day. The curve rose, particularly the long end


Net Basis Movements the time trends of the futures prices and the cheapest to deliver (CTD) forward price. The cheapest to deliver forward price is defined as the conversion factor adjusted CTD price net of the cost to carry. The difference is the basis. The prices have fallen around 0.30 as the rates have risen. 

 

Decomposition of the Net Basis.  The basis = option – ch/rh. The option value has increased as the rates rose

 

Cheap/Rich Trends of the September Contracts  The spikes may offer trading opportunities

 

 

Note: These bulletins are not recommending any trading strategies or investments, and all examples are presented only for illustrative purposes. THC is not responsible for any losses, financial or otherwise.




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